By The Secret Psychic Spy for WrestlingObserver.com
– Starting Bankroll: $1,000
– Current Bankroll: $853.76
– Last week (March 20): 4/5
– Overall: 34/57 (60%)
Back on the winning ways last time out with an almost perfect show at Fight Night 62. I also got closer to Todd in the Betting Game as our picks both won but mine had better odds. This week there’s a show starting on Saturday morning on FS 1. It’s 10 fights and the card is really deep with familiar names in all but one of the fights. I’ve looked at the entire card and here are your five best valued picks for the show:
Pick 1: Liz Carmouche (9-5) -115 over Lauren Murphy (8-1)
– I’m betting $60 to win $52.17
This fight is almost a pick ‘em in terms of the odds but in my opinion Carmouche should be a big favorite. She has fought a much higher quality of opposition in UFC and is the far more experienced fighter. Murphy had her first and only big test against Sara McMann last time out and suffered her first loss. This is also my pick in the Betting game.
Pick 2: Gray Maynard (11-4-1) +105 over Alexander Yakovlev (21-6-1)
– I’m betting $60 to win $63
Yakovlev is 0-2 in UFC. Yes, that was at welterweight but he’s going up against one of the most experienced fighters in UFC in Gray Maynard. Maynard has been knocked out in each of his last 3 fights yes but those were against elite lightweights in Ross Pearson, Nate Diaz and TJ Grant. Nothing about Yakovlev’s recent past suggest he’d finish Maynard as he hasn’t finished anyone in 4 years. Look for Maynard to regain some of his past glory here.
Pick 3: Dustin Poirier (16-4) -190 over Carlos Ferreira (11-1)
– I’m betting $60 to win $31.58
Poirier was knocked out by Conor McGregor in his last fight, which precipitated the move up in weight class. Without the tough weight cut, Poirier should be a different fighter. Ferreira folded in his only big test of his career so far last time out against Beneil Dariush. Poirier should make his debut at 155 a successful one.
Pick 4: Clay Guida (31-15) -240 over Robbie Peralta (18-5)
– I’m betting $60 to win $25
Guida doesn’t have the best win/loss record but his losses have pretty much come against the best of the best at 145 and 155. Peralta certainly doesn’t qualify there. He’s 2-2 in UFC with the two wins coming against Estevan Payan and Rony Jason, not exactly world beaters. Guida generally doesn’t lose these kinds of fights.
Pick 5: Ronald Stallings (12-6) +115 over Justin Jones (3-1)
– I’m betting $60 to win $69
This is a matchup of two guys who both made their UFC debuts on short notice and lost. Stallings did so against Uriah Hall and was winning the fight against the rising contender before getting knocked out cold. Jones was also knocked out early in his fight with Corey Anderson and is moving down in weight class here. In my opinion, it’s a pick em fight and when you can get plus odds on one of the fighters in a pick em, you take it.
Overall I’m wagering $300 with a chance to win $240.75.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin
– Todd Martin: $700.24 (Picked Silva, Nelson, Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
– Secret Psychic Spy: $555 (Picked Santos, Cruickshank, Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)
We both won last week but I picked an underdog and moved closer to Todd. We’re going head to head this week as we both have opposite side of the same fight.
Todd’s pick and analysis:
– Lauren Murphy -105 over Liz Carmouche
“It doesn’t feel like Lauren Murphy should beat Liz Carmouche. Carmouche is a former Marine while Murphy got into MMA after taking her son to jiu jitsu classes. Murphy doesn’t look tough or intimidating while Carmouche is as powerfully built as any female fighter. But Murphy finds way to win fights and Carmouche finds ways to lose them. Murphy turns up the aggression at the right times. Carmouche doesn’t. Carmouche is often content to let the fight play out in a way that benefits her opponent while Murphy looks for ways to change the situation if it doesn’t benefit her. In what I expect will be a close decision fight, those are the sorts of things that create a winner and I like Murphy in this one.”
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else, let’s beat Todd Martin!